publications
The climes network regularly contributes to international research on climate extremes and their societal impacts. This page highlights our peer-reviewed articles, reports, and policy briefs, showcasing results from collaborations across disciplines and institutions.
Each publication reflects our shared goal: to generate scientific knowledge that supports resilience and informed decision-making in a changing climate. Explore the latest outputs below.
The climes network regularly contributes to international research on climate extremes and their societal impacts. This page highlights our peer-reviewed articles, reports, and policy briefs, showcasing results from collaborations across disciplines and institutions.
Each publication reflects our shared goal: to generate scientific knowledge that supports resilience and informed decision-making in a changing climate. Explore the latest outputs below.
Simulating the Western North America Heatwave of 2021 with Analogue Importance Sampling
March 2024
Authors: Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Gabriele Messori
Abstract: During the summer of 2021, the North American Pacific Northwest experienced an extreme heatwave that shattered previous temperature records, leading to severe impacts on human life and ecosystems. This study evaluates whether this heatwave could have been predicted prior to its occurrence and examines the influence of climate change on worst-case heatwave scenarios in the region. Utilizing a stochastic weather generator with empirical importance sampling, the research simulates extreme temperature sequences using circulation analogues. The findings indicate that some large-scale drivers of the event can be identified from the circulation analogues, even without direct input to the weather generator.
Link to Publication:
Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi-Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview
2 January 2024
Authors: Mariana Madruga de Brito, Jan Sodoge, Alexander Fekete, Michael Hagenlocher, Elco Koks, Christian Kuhlicke, Gabriele Messori*, Marleen de Ruiter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Philip J. Ward
Abstract:
Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, trigger complex compound and cascading impacts (CCI) due to interdependencies between natural and social systems. Current decision-making often overlooks these complexities. This perspective paper presents methods for assessing the dynamics of multi-sector CCI, advocating for methodological pluralism by combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. The goal is to inform effective adaptation planning to reduce the risks associated with hydrological extremes.
Link to Publication:
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003906
TO BE FILLED ONCE THE DESIGN IS DECIDED
Publications
Sustainable Transformations for Healthcare Systems in a Changing Climate
22 March 2024
Authors: Elena Raffetti, Malin Ahrne, Stefan Döring, Ana Hagström, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Gabriele Messori, Maria Rusca, Laura Zarantonello
Abstract:
Climate extremes place unprecedented strains on healthcare systems, intensifying existing issues. This commentary highlights three critical challenges: the unintended health consequences of adaptation actions, the need for interdisciplinary research frameworks, and the importance of forward-looking, context-based scenarios. By fostering collaboration across natural, medical, and social sciences, we can shift toward more sustainable and equitable healthcare.
Link to Publication:
June 2024
Authors:
Julia Moemken, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto
Abstract:
Windstorms are major natural hazards in Europe, causing significant damage. This study compares windstorm loss data from five datasets: meteorological indices, natural hazard databases, and insurance reports. Results reveal substantial differences in storm reporting and loss estimates across datasets. No single dataset serves as a “ground truth”; instead, all provide valuable perspectives. Using multiple datasets is essential for accurate risk assessment and developing effective adaptation strategies.
Link to Publication:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661
Windstorm Losses in Europe – What to Gain from Damage Datasets
The Perfect Storm? Co-occurring Climate Extremes in East Africa
24 April 2024
Authors: Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, Wim Thiery
Abstract:
Co-occurring extreme climate events in East Africa exacerbate adverse impacts on humans, the economy, and the environment. While individual extreme events are well-studied, their interactions and joint occurrences are less understood. This study analyzes the co-occurrence of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones using ISIMIP simulations. Results show a significant increase in areas affected by pairs of extreme events, especially joint heatwaves and wildfires (+940%), river floods and heatwaves (+900%), and river floods and wildfires (+250%) by the end of the century under RCP6.0. Even with aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6), these increases are projected to remain high. The most affected areas are near the River Nile and Congo basin, highlighting the need for comprehensive adaptation strategies.
Link to Publication:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024
Authors:
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Rodrigo Caballero
This study examines the role of large-scale atmospheric processes in the development of cyclones causing extreme surface winds over the central North Atlantic basin (30° to 60° N, 10° to 50° W) during the extended winter period (October–March) from 1950 to 2020, using the ERA5 reanalysis product. Extreme surface wind events are defined by 10 m wind exceedances over the local 98th percentile. Cyclones causing the top 1% most intense wind footprints (‘top extremes’) are analyzed and compared to cyclones with exceedances marginally above the 98th percentile (‘moderate extremes’). Key features like pre-existing downstream cyclones, a strong polar jet, and positive upper-level potential vorticity anomalies to the north are present during the top extremes’ development, but are absent or weaker in moderate extremes. Additionally, pressure tendency analysis shows a greater diabatic contribution in top extremes.
Link to Publication:
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/821/2024/
Large-scale Perspective on the Extreme Near-Surface Winds in the Central North Atlantic
Dynamics, Statistics, and Predictability of Rossby Waves, Heatwaves, and Spatially Compounded Extreme Events
24 April 2024
Authors: Valerio Lembo, Simona Bordoni, Emanuele Bevacqua, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christian L. E. Franzke, Vera M. Galfi, Chaim Garfinkel, Christian I. Grams, Assaf Hochman, Roshan Jha, Kai Kornhuber, Frank Kwasniok, Valerio Lucarini, Gabriele Messori, Duncan Pappert, Iago Perez-Fernandez, Jacopo Riboldi, Emmanuele Russo, Tiffany A. Shaw, Iana Strigunova, Felix Strnad, Pascal Yiou, and Nedjeljka Zagar
Abstract:
A workshop on Rossby waves, heatwaves, and compound extreme events was co-organized by the Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) of the National Research Council of Italy (CNR) and the University of Trento. The event brought together experts in extreme events analysis, atmospheric dynamics, climate modeling, and Numerical Weather Prediction to discuss the latest research, address open challenges, and foster networking across different scientific communities.
Link to Publication:
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0145.1
Authors:
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Abstract:
The study presents ClimaMeter, a platform designed to assess and contextualize extreme-weather events in relation to climate change. Providing near-real-time insights, ClimaMeter analyzes heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation, and windstorms. The methodology utilizes Multi-Source Weather (MSWX) data and ERA5 climate reanalysis to determine the influence of climate change on specific extreme events. The study includes case studies of the 2023 French heatwave and Storm Poly. ClimaMeter aims to serve as a resource for researchers, policymakers, and the general public by offering accessible and detailed analysis of extreme-weather events in a changing climate.
Link to Publication:
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024
ClimaMeter: Contextualizing Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate
Plural climate storylines to foster just urban futures
11 October 2024
Authors:
Maria Rusca, Alice Sverdlik, Amitangshu Acharya, Britt Basel, Emily Boyd, Thaisa Comelli, David Dodman, Arabella Fraser, Dylan Matthew Harris, Sara Lindersson, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Marcellus Forh Mbah, Diana Mitlin, Anshu Ogra, Mark Pelling, Elena Raffetti, Farhana Sultana, Erica Thompson, Arianna Tozzi, Margreet Zwarteveen, and Gabriele Messori
Abstract:
This perspective introduces the plural climate storylines framework to enhance the usability of climate projections while addressing justice and equity in urban adaptation to climate change. Building on the limitations of physical climate storylines, the framework incorporates four methodological schools: power-sensitive storylines, decolonizing storylines, co-producing storylines, and aspirational storylines. These approaches integrate diverse knowledge systems to address social and climatic complexities, offering pathways toward transformative, just urban futures. By fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, the framework aims to create actionable insights for equitable climate policy and adaptation strategies.
Link to Publication:
https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-024-00100-7