From Attribution to Exposure: Quantifying the Societal Footprint of Extreme Events
About
Extreme weather events are increasingly influenced by a warming climate, yet translating physical attribution into actionable societal metrics remains challenging. In this seminar, Davide Faranda presents a framework to quantify socioeconomic exposure to climate-amplified hazards, using the analogue-based attribution approach developed in www.climameter.org.
The method identifies weather situations similar to a given extreme in past and present climates, isolates the climate change signal in key variables (e.g., temperature), and intersects this signal with gridded population and economic data. Exposure is defined using threshold-based hazard masks combined with areas where the attribution signal is statistically significant, allowing the contribution of anthropogenic climate change under present-day socioeconomic conditions to be isolated.
Key Topics
- Physical attribution of extreme events in a warming climate
- Quantifying socioeconomic exposure to climate-amplified hazards
- Threshold-based hazard masks and statistical significance
- Case studies: US Heatwave 2026, Hurricane Melissa
- Bridging physical attribution, risk metrics, and adaptation planning
- Applications for impact assessment and climate risk communication
Speaker
Davide Faranda, Directeur de Recherche, CNRS, Paris
Davide Faranda is a climate scientist specializing in extreme events, analogue-based attribution, and climate dynamics. His research develops quantitative frameworks linking physical climate processes with societal impacts, combining statistical methods, observational datasets, and numerical modeling. He contributes to international collaborations on climate extremes, hazard attribution, and risk-informed decision-making.
Highlights
- Expert perspective: Novel framework for quantifying exposure to climate-amplified hazards
- Interactive Q&A: Discuss methodology, applications, and interpretation
- Hybrid format: Attend in-person at Lund University or online via Zoom
