publications
The climes network regularly contributes to international research on climate extremes and their societal impacts.
(Climes authors in bold.)
Climate change litigation and intersectionality in climate justice
2026
Authors: Schill, E., Boyd, E., Pobiega, E. G., Soo, J.
Abstract: This study examines how intersectionality shapes climate change litigation and climate justice outcomes. It highlights how legal processes engage with overlapping social inequalities, offering insights into how litigation can address or reinforce disparities in climate governance.
Link to publication:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378026000208
Cardiovascular Child Health in a changing climate
2025
Authors: Raffetti, E.
Abstract: This paper examines the impacts of climate change on cardiovascular health in children. It highlights emerging risks linked to heat exposure and environmental stressors, emphasizing the need for targeted research and policy measures to protect vulnerable populations.
Link to publication:
https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf1083/8443522?redirectedFrom=fulltext
Exploring public risk perception of multiple hazards through network analysis
2025
Authors: Paniello-Castillo, B., Triolo, F., Dryhurst, S., Taylor, O. A., Mazzoleni, M., Khouja, J., Munafò, M., Di Baldassarre, G., and Raffetti, E.
Abstract: This study investigates how individuals perceive risks from multiple hazards using network analysis. It reveals how different risks are cognitively connected and how these connections shape public understanding, offering insights for improving communication and risk management strategies.
Link to publication:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40741134/
Challenges and Opportunities for Understanding Societal Impacts of Climate Extremes
2026
Authors: Messori, G., Boyd, E., Nivre, J., Raffetti, E.
Abstract: This study explores key challenges in understanding the societal impacts of climate extremes, including data gaps, methodological fragmentation, and limited integration across disciplines. It outlines opportunities for advancing the field through improved datasets, interdisciplinary approaches, and more systematic analysis of socio-physical interactions.
Link to publication:
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/17/199/2026/esd-17-199-2026.html
The Accuracy Cost of Weakness: A Theoretical Analysis of Fixed-Segment Weak Labeling for Events in Time
2025
Authors: Martinsson, J., Virtanen, T., Sandsten, M., and Mogren, O.
Abstract: This paper provides a theoretical analysis of fixed-segment weak labeling for temporal events. It quantifies the trade-offs between labeling simplicity and predictive accuracy, showing how weak labeling strategies impact model performance and outlining conditions under which accuracy loss can be minimized.
Link to publication:
https://openreview.net/pdf?id=tTw8wXBQ18
Challenges in understanding the effect of climate extremes and climatic factors on maternal and infant health
2025
Authors: Raffetti, E., Messori, G., Döring, S., Zuccolo, L.
Abstract: This study examines how climate extremes and related climatic factors affect maternal and infant health. It highlights key challenges in disentangling direct and indirect impacts, data limitations, and methodological constraints, while outlining opportunities for improving evidence on health risks associated with climate variability and extremes.
Link to publication:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44360-025-00030-9
Skillful heat-related mortality forecasting during recent deadly European summers
2025
Authors: Holmberg, E., Quijal-Zamorano, M., Ballester, J., and Messori, G.
Abstract: This study evaluates the skill of forecasting heat-related mortality during recent extreme European summers. By combining temperature forecasts with exposure–response relationships, it demonstrates that mortality impacts can be predicted with useful skill several days in advance. The results highlight the potential of impact-based forecasting to support heat-health early warning systems.
Link to publication:
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2426516122
SHEDIS-Temperature: Linking temperature-related disaster impacts to subnational data on meteorology and human exposure
2025
Authors: Lindersson S., Messori, G.
Abstract: This paper presents SHEDIS-Temperature, a dataset linking temperature-related disaster impacts with subnational meteorological conditions and human exposure. By combining impact reports with gridded climate data and population information, it enables detailed analysis of heat- and cold-related impacts across regions. The dataset supports improved attribution, risk assessment, and policy-relevant impact analysis.
Link to publication:
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/6379/2025/
Impact of Weather Extremes on the Swedish Power System
2025
Authors: Zarkovic, S.D., Kurfalı, M., Messori, G.
Abstract: This study analyzes how weather extremes affect the reliability and performance of the Swedish power system. It examines the sensitivity of electricity generation and transmission to extreme meteorological conditions, highlighting vulnerabilities linked to temperature and wind extremes. The findings support the need for climate-informed planning to enhance power system resilience.
Link to publication:
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11305246
ClimateEval: A Comprehensive Benchmark for NLP Tasks Related to Climate Change
2025
Authors: Kurfalı, M., Zahra, S., Nivre, J., Messori, G.
Abstract: This paper introduces ClimateEval, a benchmark designed to evaluate natural language processing models on a wide range of climate change–related tasks. The benchmark integrates multiple datasets covering information extraction, classification, and reasoning challenges specific to climate texts. Results show substantial performance gaps across tasks, underscoring the need for domain-specific evaluation in climate NLP.
Link to publication:
https://aclanthology.org/2025.climatenlp-1.13/
Compounding droughts and floods amplify socio-economic impacts
2025
Authors: Worou K., Messori G.
Abstract: This study examines how the co-occurrence of droughts and floods amplifies socio-economic impacts compared to single-hazard events. Using impact databases and hydroclimatic indicators, it shows that compound events are associated with disproportionately larger damages. The results highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for hazard compounding in risk assessment and adaptation planning.
Link to publication:
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adfe82
Risk perception of climate change and global crises: Influences of socio-economic drivers and political orientations
2025
Authors: Paniello-Castillo, B., Döring, S., Dryhurst, S., Di Baldassarre, G., and Raffetti, E.
Abstract: This paper investigates how socio-economic characteristics and political orientations shape perceptions of climate change and other global crises. Using survey-based data, it analyzes variations in risk perception across population groups and ideological positions. The findings show that political orientation and socio-economic context strongly condition how climate risks are perceived relative to other global threats.
Link to publication:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-025-05349-y
Dynamics of the polycrisis: temporal trends, spatial distribution, and co-occurrences of national shocks (1970–2019)
2025
Authors: Delannoy, L., Verzier, A., Bastien-Olvera, B. A., Benra, F., Nyström, M., and Jørgensen, P. S.
Abstract: This study analyzes the dynamics of national-level shocks across multiple domains between 1970 and 2019 to characterize the emergence of a global polycrisis. It examines temporal trends, spatial patterns, and co-occurrences of different shock types, including environmental, economic, and political events. Results show increasing interconnections among shocks over time, highlighting growing systemic vulnerability at the global scale.
Towards CS4L&D: Advancing climate services for loss and damage
2025
Authors: Scown, M., Du, H., Jackson, G., De Rosa, S. P., and Boyd, E.
Link to publication:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072500024X
Assessing climate change impacts on the March 2024 compound floods and Saharan dust outbreak in Europe
2025
Authors: Pons, F., Alberti, T., Messori, G., Dulac, F., and Faranda, D.
Abstract: This study examines the role of climate change in the March 2024 compound event combining severe flooding in parts of Europe with a large Saharan dust outbreak. Using circulation analogues, it compares the event to similar past weather patterns and evaluates changes in their characteristics over recent decades. Results suggest an intensification of key features consistent with a warming climate.
Link to publication:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD042218
CLIMK–WINDS: A New Database of Extreme European Winter Windstorms
2025
Authors: Flynn, C. M., Moemken, J., Pinto, J. G., Schutte, M. K., and Messori, G.
Abstract: This paper introduces CLIMK–WINDS, a new database of extreme European winter windstorms derived from multiple atmospheric datasets. It provides consistent storm footprints and severity metrics, enabling comparison across datasets rather than reliance on a single source. The database highlights how dataset choice and resolution affect storm identification and impact assessment.
Link to publication:
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/4431/2025/
El Niño and droughts in Southeast Asia: A stochastic-chaotic modeling approach
2025
Authors: Faranda, D., Sato, Y., Dong, C., Gualandi, A., Noyelle, R., Alberti, T., Dubrulle, B., Fery, L., Messori, G., et al.
Abstract: This study develops a minimal stochastic–chaotic model to investigate how El Niño conditions influence drought risk in Southeast Asia. The model identifies thresholds in large-scale climate variables beyond which the probability of prolonged dry conditions increases sharply. Results show that drought risk is strongly state-dependent, helping explain why similar El Niño events can have different regional impacts.
Link to publication:
https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.111.064209
Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change
2025
Authors: Messori, G., Muheki, D., Batibeniz, F., Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., and Thiery, W.
Abstract: This paper presents a global assessment of concurrent climate hazards and impacts under future climate change using multi-sectoral impact model simulations. It shows that many regions are projected to transition from isolated hazards to recurrent compound extremes, particularly involving heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires. The results indicate a qualitative shift toward compound impacts becoming the norm in the absence of strong mitigation.
Link to publication:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF006325
How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe
2025
Authors: Shyrokaya, A., Pappenberger, F., Messori, G., Pechlivanidis, I., Cloke, H., and Di Baldassarre, G.
Abstract: This study evaluates how well commonly used drought indices balance forecast skill and their ability to estimate real-world impacts across Europe. Using seasonal forecasts from ECMWF SEAS5 together with reanalysis and impact data, it assesses predictability across regions, seasons, and accumulation periods. Results show substantial regional variation, with some indices offering useful impact predictability several months ahead in specific contexts.
Link to publication:
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adb869
Loss and damage in tropical fisheries: a systematic review of people, climate, and fisheries
2025
Authors: N’Guetta, A., Boyd, E., Krause, T., and Jackson, G.
Abstract: This systematic review examines how climate-related loss and damage is conceptualized and assessed in recent tropical fisheries research. All reviewed studies report economic losses, while many also document non-economic losses related to ecosystems, food security, health, identity, and social well-being. The findings show that losses are often relational and shaped by interacting stressors such as overfishing, pollution, and governance failures.
Link to publication:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-025-02374-0
Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events
2024
Authors: Faranda, D., Messori, G., Alberti, T., Alvarez-Castro, C., Caby, T., Cavicchia, L., Coppola, E., Donner, R. V., Dubrulle, B., Galfi, V. M., Holmberg, E., Lembo, V., Noyelle, R., Yiou, P., Spagnolo, B., Valenti, D., Vaienti, S., and Wormell, C.
Abstract:This article reframes geophysical extreme events through the lens of dynamical systems and statistical physics, arguing that traditional extreme value analysis often lacks physical interpretability. Extremes are described as transient departures from typical system trajectories that generate coherent space–time structures. The paper outlines conceptual challenges and stochastic approaches to better link extremes to underlying dynamics.
Link to publication:
https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes? A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast
2024
Authors: Olivetti L., Messori G.
Abstract: This paper compares state-of-the-art data-driven weather prediction models with the ECMWF IFS HRES system in forecasting near-surface temperature and wind extremes. Data-driven models outperform the numerical model in global error metrics at lead times from 1 to 10 days and show competitive skill for extreme-event prediction across most regions. Performance varies by region, variable, and lead time.
Link to publication:
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/7915/2024/
Future changes of compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
21 January 2025
Authors: Lopez-Marti, F., Ginesta, M., Faranda, D., Rutgersson, A., Yiou, P., Wu, L., and Messori, G.
Abstract: This study analyzes the co-occurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclones in the North Atlantic using ERA5 reanalysis and CMIP6 climate model simulations. Atmospheric rivers are more likely to occur near explosive cyclones and are associated with stronger and longer-lived systems. Projections show a robust increase in these compound events during the 21st century, particularly over Western Europe under high-emission scenarios.
Link to publication:
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/169/2025/
Using LLMs to Build a Database of Climate Extreme Impacts
2024
Authors: Li, N., Zahra, S., de Brito, M. M., Flynn, C. M., Görnerup, O., Worou, K., Kurfali, M., Meng, C., Thiery, W., Zscheischler, J., Messori, G., and Nivre, J.
Abstract: This paper presents a framework for constructing large-scale databases of climate extreme impacts from online text sources using large language models combined with conventional NLP methods. The approach is evaluated against an expert-curated benchmark, showing that extraction accuracy varies across information types. Among the tested models, GPT-4 performs best overall, while open models remain competitive for selected tasks.
Link to Publication:
https://openreview.net/forum?id=h7o0qyQ0rt
Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi-Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview
2024
Authors: de Brito, M. M., Sodoge, J., Fekete, A., Hagenlocher, M., Koks, E., Kuhlicke, C., Messori, G., de Ruiter, M., Schweizer, P.-J., and Ward, P. J.
Abstract: Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, trigger complex compound and cascading impacts (CCI) due to interdependencies between natural and social systems. Current decision-making often overlooks these complexities. This perspective paper presents methods for assessing the dynamics of multi-sector CCI, advocating for methodological pluralism by combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. The goal is to inform effective adaptation planning to reduce the risks associated with hydrological extremes.
Link to Publication:
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003906
Simulating the Western North America Heatwave of 2021 with Analogue Importance Sampling
2024
Authors: Pons, F. M. E., Yiou, P., Jézéquel, A., and Messori, G.
Abstract: During the summer of 2021, the North American Pacific Northwest experienced an extreme heatwave that shattered previous temperature records, leading to severe impacts on human life and ecosystems. This study evaluates whether this heatwave could have been predicted prior to its occurrence and examines the influence of climate change on worst-case heatwave scenarios in the region. Utilizing a stochastic weather generator with empirical importance sampling, the research simulates extreme temperature sequences using circulation analogues. The findings indicate that some large-scale drivers of the event can be identified from the circulation analogues, even without direct input to the weather generator.
Link to Publication:
Sustainable Transformations for Healthcare Systems in a Changing Climate
2024
Authors: Raffetti, E., Ahrne, M., Döring, S., Hagström, A., Mazzoleni, M., Messori, G., Rusca, M., and Zarantonello, L.
Abstract: Climate extremes place unprecedented strains on healthcare systems, intensifying existing issues. This commentary highlights three critical challenges: the unintended health consequences of adaptation actions, the need for interdisciplinary research frameworks, and the importance of forward-looking, context-based scenarios. By fostering collaboration across natural, medical, and social sciences, we can shift toward more sustainable and equitable healthcare.
Link to Publication:
Windstorm Losses in Europe – What to Gain from Damage Datasets
June 2024
Authors: Moemken J., Messori G., Pinto J.G.
Abstract: Windstorms are major natural hazards in Europe, causing significant damage. This study compares windstorm loss data from five datasets: meteorological indices, natural hazard databases, and insurance reports. Results reveal substantial differences in storm reporting and loss estimates across datasets. No single dataset serves as a “ground truth”; instead, all provide valuable perspectives. Using multiple datasets is essential for accurate risk assessment and developing effective adaptation strategies.
Link to Publication:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000227
The Perfect Storm? Co-occurring Climate Extremes in East Africa
2024
Authors: Muheki, D., Deijns, A. A. J., Bevacqua, E., Messori, G., Zscheischler, J., and Thiery, W.
Abstract: Co-occurring extreme climate events in East Africa exacerbate adverse impacts on humans, the economy, and the environment. While individual extreme events are well-studied, their interactions and joint occurrences are less understood. This study analyzes the co-occurrence of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones using ISIMIP simulations. Results show a significant increase in areas affected by pairs of extreme events, especially joint heatwaves and wildfires (+940%), river floods and heatwaves (+900%), and river floods and wildfires (+250%) by the end of the century under RCP6.0. Even with aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6), these increases are projected to remain high. The most affected areas are near the River Nile and Congo basin, highlighting the need for comprehensive adaptation strategies.
Link to Publication:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024
Large-scale Perspective on the Extreme Near-Surface Winds in the Central North Atlantic
Authors: Stanković, A., Messori, G., Pinto, J. G., and Caballero, R.
Abstract: This study examines the role of large-scale atmospheric processes in the development of cyclones causing extreme surface winds over the central North Atlantic basin (30° to 60° N, 10° to 50° W) during the extended winter period (October–March) from 1950 to 2020, using the ERA5 reanalysis product. Extreme surface wind events are defined by 10 m wind exceedances over the local 98th percentile. Cyclones causing the top 1% most intense wind footprints (‘top extremes’) are analyzed and compared to cyclones with exceedances marginally above the 98th percentile (‘moderate extremes’). Key features like pre-existing downstream cyclones, a strong polar jet, and positive upper-level potential vorticity anomalies to the north are present during the top extremes’ development, but are absent or weaker in moderate extremes. Additionally, pressure tendency analysis shows a greater diabatic contribution in top extremes.
Link to Publication:
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/821/2024/
Dynamics, Statistics, and Predictability of Rossby Waves, Heatwaves, and Spatially Compounded Extreme Events
2024
Authors: Lembo, V., Bordoni, S., Bevacqua, E., Domeisen, D. I. V., Franzke, C. L. E., Galfi, V. M., Garfinkel, C., Grams, C. I., Hochman, A., Jha, R., Kornhuber, K., Kwasniok, F., Lucarini, V., Messori, G., Pappert, D., Perez-Fernandez, I., Riboldi, J., Russo, E., Shaw, T. A., Strigunova, I., Strnad, F., Yiou, P., and Zagar, N.
Abstract: A workshop on Rossby waves, heatwaves, and compound extreme events was co-organized by the Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) of the National Research Council of Italy (CNR) and the University of Trento. The event brought together experts in extreme events analysis, atmospheric dynamics, climate modeling, and Numerical Weather Prediction to discuss the latest research, address open challenges, and foster networking across different scientific communities.
Link to Publication:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/105/12/BAMS-D-24-0145.1.xml
ClimaMeter: Contextualizing Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate
Authors: Faranda, D., Messori, G., Coppola, E., Alberti, T., Vrac, M., Pons, F., Yiou, P., Saint Lu, M., Hisi, A. N. S., Brockmann, P., Dafis, S., Mengaldo, G., and Vautard, R.
Abstract: The study presents ClimaMeter, a platform designed to assess and contextualize extreme-weather events in relation to climate change. Providing near-real-time insights, ClimaMeter analyzes heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation, and windstorms. The methodology utilizes Multi-Source Weather (MSWX) data and ERA5 climate reanalysis to determine the influence of climate change on specific extreme events. The study includes case studies of the 2023 French heatwave and Storm Poly. ClimaMeter aims to serve as a resource for researchers, policymakers, and the general public by offering accessible and detailed analysis of extreme-weather events in a changing climate.
Link to Publication:
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/959/2024/
Plural climate storylines to foster just urban futures
2024
Authors: Rusca, M., Sverdlik, A., Acharya, A., Basel, B., Boyd, E., Comelli, T., Dodman, D., Fraser, A., Harris, D. M., Lindersson, S., Mazzoleni, M., Mbah, M. F., Mitlin, D., Ogra, A., Pelling, M., Raffetti, E., Sultana, F., Thompson, E., Tozzi, A., Zwarteveen, M., and Messori, G.
Abstract: This perspective introduces the plural climate storylines framework to enhance the usability of climate projections while addressing justice and equity in urban adaptation to climate change. Building on the limitations of physical climate storylines, the framework incorporates four methodological schools: power-sensitive storylines, decolonizing storylines, co-producing storylines, and aspirational storylines. These approaches integrate diverse knowledge systems to address social and climatic complexities, offering pathways toward transformative, just urban futures. By fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, the framework aims to create actionable insights for equitable climate policy and adaptation strategies.
Link to Publication:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44284-024-00133-6